Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
