Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
